The global Bourbon vanilla market, largely dominated by Madagascar, represents one of the most volatile and unpredictable sectors among food commodities.

Between 2018 and 2021, prices reached historic highs, regularly exceeding €500/kg, before entering a phase of relative stabilization, marked by less significant fluctuations.

For professionals working in this field, it is absolutely crucial to have a good understanding of market trends in order to effectively anticipate:
→ strategic procurement planning
→ optimized negotiation of the volumes to be purchased
→ the strict management of profit margins in an uncertain context

This article provides a detailed analysis of the market for the 2024–2026 period, based on current structural trends.

Market situation in 2024

In 2024, Madagascar vanilla prices are within a stable range:

Powders: according to purity and particle size

Gourmet Bourbon 180 – over €250/kg

Red EU : 60–120 €/kg

TK / Cuts : 25–40 €/kg

Stabilizing factors :

• slightly reduced logistics cost
• more consistent harvest level
• enhanced oversight of the sector by the authorities
• stable but segmented global demand

The Factors That Influenced Prices in 2025 :

Madagascar Production : the specific climatic conditions of the region as well as the strict control of the drying process remain absolutely critical factors in the final quality of the product. These elements significantly influence both the yield and the consistency of production.

Government regulations : Reference prices set by authorities, imposed export quotas, as well as specific shipping schedules, have a direct and significant influence on the FOB prices practiced in the market. These regulatory measures play a crucial role in determining commercial conditions and framing the terms of export sales.

Industrial demand stable : this segment is generally less sensitive to price fluctuations, but it remains extremely demanding and very attentive to technical quality the products offered. In 2025, large agri-food industries place particular importance on flavor stability, strict compliance with maximum residue limits (MRLs), as well as ensuring regular and consistent volumes throughout the year.

International competition

Uganda, Papua New Guinea, and Indonesia are seeing significant gains in market share, showing notable progress in their respective performances. However, despite this rise of these countries, The exceptional quality of the product from Madagascar remains largely dominant and continues to establish itself as an essential benchmark in the sector..

2025–2026 Price Forecast

According to market models, prices on the European market are expected to evolve as follows:

Low scenario (abundant supply)

• Gourmet: €160–190/kg
• Red EU : €50–80/kg

Central scenario (likely)

• Gourmet : €180–220/kg
• Red EU : €60–120/kg

High scenario (climatic hazards / strict regulations)

• Gourmet : > €250/kg
• Rouge EU : > €130/kg

To make their forecasts, professionals must take into account:
✔ la volatility
✔ regulatory constraints
✔ climate risks
✔ quality requirements

Thus, for all professionals, we would strongly recommend taking the following points into consideration :

✔ prioritize sustainable partnerships
✔ distribute supplies throughout the year
✔ rely on 12–24 month forecasts
✔ get supplies from stocks already checked in France to reduce the risks.

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